Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.017145 0.019398 0.021837 0.024675 0.027886 0.031409 0.035567
2025-09-28 0.013031 0.016007 0.019502 0.023913 0.029336 0.035793 0.044075
2025-10-05 0.011464 0.014898 0.019164 0.024857 0.032267 0.041601 0.054280
2025-10-12 0.010236 0.013930 0.018732 0.025443 0.034597 0.046674 0.063871
2025-10-19 0.009322 0.013203 0.018452 0.026086 0.036931 0.051829 0.073931
2025-10-26 0.008338 0.012238 0.017702 0.025936 0.038066 0.055340 0.081928
2025-11-02 0.007572 0.011479 0.017136 0.025940 0.039347 0.059081 0.090496
2025-11-09 0.006802 0.010625 0.016327 0.025473 0.039835 0.061628 0.097418
2025-11-16 0.006331 0.010172 0.016063 0.025781 0.041490 0.066021 0.107509
2025-11-23 0.005804 0.009574 0.015511 0.025567 0.042270 0.069066 0.115656
2025-11-30 0.005512 0.009326 0.015482 0.026178 0.044410 0.074425 0.128011
2025-12-07 0.004980 0.008627 0.014654 0.025379 0.044111 0.075708 0.133542
2025-12-14 0.004580 0.008126 0.014125 0.025060 0.044634 0.078468 0.141975
2025-12-21 0.004145 0.007525 0.013377 0.024292 0.044302 0.079721 0.147841
2025-12-28 0.004028 0.007479 0.013590 0.025251 0.047133 0.086777 0.164875
2026-01-04 0.003865 0.007333 0.013608 0.025847 0.049335 0.092853 0.180582
2026-01-11 0.003722 0.007212 0.013658 0.026500 0.051688 0.099380 0.197696
2026-01-18 0.003485 0.006890 0.013305 0.026347 0.052467 0.102962 0.209314
2026-01-25 0.003288 0.006628 0.013045 0.026351 0.053544 0.107189 0.222561
2026-02-01 0.003053 0.006270 0.012567 0.025877 0.053614 0.109413 0.231865
2026-02-08 0.002923 0.006116 0.012481 0.026190 0.055316 0.115050 0.248777
2026-02-15 0.002748 0.005852 0.012154 0.025973 0.055885 0.118387 0.261034
2026-02-22 0.002668 0.005784 0.012221 0.026593 0.058285 0.125740 0.282670